Gujarat Model of Development: An Empirical Assessment

The biggest festival of India, parliamentary election, is planned in April and May 2014. This is not a mere number game for Indians but this is the question of their survival and a chance to gain prosperity in the economic, political, and social spheres of their life. In democracy, we do not choose only leaders to represent us but also assert our rights to have freedom, liberty, equality, and justice. These are the basic rights that one should have to live a decent life. In this election, everyone knows which party is going to get highest number of seats. The main problem is the formation of government at the centre in a coalition era asserted by ‘regional parties’ based on ‘primordial identities’. This time, the expectations from the government is very high after seeing the misrule for last five years. Irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies, corruption in government and governance, weak foreign policy and especially diplomacy, inefficient administration and insufficient results in social sectors are the important signifier of United Progressive Alliance II. We need robust economic policies, restructured and reengineered administration, and better social sectors result to return to path of economic-social-political prosperity.

The party hoping to attain power on 18^th May 2014 has right wing credentials and especially the prime ministerial nominee was alleged to have role in the infamous Gujarat massacre of 2002. A large number of intelligentsia is expressing discomfort over this and comparing the election campaign with Mussolini’s famous march on Rome. These are the same intelligentsia, who talked about the growing unemployment, decreasing growth of national economy, rising law and order problems, corruption and so on about the UPA government but they are resistant to see a person, based on some prior records, who wants to be the Prime Minister of this country and show the path of development and good governance in coming years than the candidate who does not want to be named Prime Ministerial candidate and talks about Right to Information and Right to Education in all his rallies . I do not say that past records are not important but I want to relativize the credentials and records. Narendra Modi has established a new paradigm of development in Gujarat famously known as Gujarat model of development. The social and economic sectors growth in Gujarat has been very high in recent years.

I am using the Planning Commission’s data for comparing Gujarat and other states. Some health surveys are old and since annual survey does not talk about all the states. So, some data are not actual but estimates but for our purpose it will not have any such error. The Infant Mortality Rate of Gujarat was 48 in 2009, 44 in 2010, 41 in 2011 and 38 in 2012 and all India estimates for this is 50 in 2009, 47 in 2010, 44 in 2011 and 42 in 2012. So, it performed better than all India in these years. However, the performance of Kerala, Goa, Maharashtra and Tamilnadu are better than Gujarat. So, it can better on this front. Since, Infant Mortality Rate is a better indicator than Maternal Mortality Rate, so I will not compare MMR rates. In the percentage of live births, where mother got medical facility, I have divided it into urban and rural categories.  In Rural categories, 36.7% in 2006, 42.3% in 2007, 60.8% in 2008, 63.1% in 2009, 72.1% in 2010 and 78.6% in 2011 mothers got medical facilities. The all-India estimates are 24.9% in 2006, 28.7% in 2007, 38.3% in 2008, 49.2% in 2009, 53.9% in 2010 and 60.7% in 2011. So, Gujarat did better than all-India and as good as Tamilnadu and Maharashtra.  All other indicators can be compared and it will prove the same theory that Gujarat performed better than all-India average. But, despite having high trajectory of economic and social sectors growth, instances of malnutrition, farmers suicides and status of displaced riot victims show that there is a lot to do in Gujarat and asserts the fact that trickle down of economic prosperity has excluded some portions of population.

Gujarat model of development is not about the imitations of some alien development paradigms; it is about the diverse set of policies suitable for the development and growth of the population of Gujarat. It is about devising the right policies to have sustainable development. The use of renewable energy resources, watershed management in Saurashtra, and a greater reliance on market principles in Gujarat have provided this state robust growth. The human development indicators of some states are high but they are based on offshore economy, which cannot be sustainable in changing geo-strategic environment of the world. The unfair criticism of Narendra Modi government will lead to a paradigm which will compare governance on the basis of mere ‘dead’ ideologies. The Gujarat’s story in tackling terrorism, law and order problems is laudable.